ANNUAL FORECAST for 2006
By: Leonard Melman
Published in “ICMJ’S Prospecting and MINING Journal
When our 2005 Forecast is reviewed, we cannot
help but take some satisfaction. While we admittedly erred in our call on the
direction of the US Dollar which unexpectedly rose throughout much of the year,
we were bang-on in our estimates of the US Budgetary and Balance-Of-Trade
deficits, the petroleum markets, disruptions in the world’s ability to deliver
raw materials and the subsequent growth of inflation. We noted that the above
factors would create a “fertile ground for speculation in the world of precious
metals” - and so it turned out.
We called for gold to reach near $600 and while it fell a bit short (as this is
written), gold still turned in a solid performance. Silver was forecast to rise
to ‘near $10’ and platinum to close ‘about $1,000.’ The latter two were close to
dead right.
So, it is with some feelings of confidence that we look forward to 2006.
There is a change in our emphasis regarding the factors which we expect to drive
the precious metals markets higher. While last year we concentrated on
fundamental information regarding demand over supply, this year we are
anticipating that the precious metals markets will be driven higher - maybe VERY
sharply higher - by a rising feeling of uncertainty, perhaps even bordering on
outright fear and panic regarding America’s and the world’s financial structures
which we forecast will grow during the coming year.
As noted earlier, it is our expectation that one of the prime factors in this
anticipated rising uncertainty will be the demise of the housing bubble. Much of
the economic strength of America during the past half-decade has not come from a
powerful and expanding industrial sector throwing off a multitude of high-paying
jobs - which would be typical of a healthy and dynamic economy - but rather it
has come from new monies thrown off as the result of real estate speculation.
These hundreds of billions have been spent in the economy and it is that source
of money that has sustained the appearance of fundamental strength. But we
believe that emperor is about to lose his set of clothes and reality will be
stripped bare for all to see and that reality is that the United States has
transformed itself during the past four decades from a sound, powerful and
dynamic economic society into a heavily indebted-at-all-levels nation.
How long will the rest of the world re-invest their huge pile of American
dollars into the American economic structure? We believe that time span is short
and, if the housing market fails to rise and then begins to collapse, thereby
negatively affecting the economy, that might also be the signal for other
nations to get their money out of the USA. Should that happen, the pressures to
raise interest rates to attract foreign investment and support the dollar could
be unstoppable and accelerating rises in interest rates would not only crush
real estate, but as the cost of borrowing rose sharply, industrial and even
municipal and state government budgets would be negatively impacted.
In addition, we do expect the growing fundamental materials demand from India as
well as Japan’s rebounding economy and growth in several South American
countries will continue the demand/supply pressures on the world’s raw materials
markets as well.
Accordingly, we are quite bullish on the precious metals sector and offer the
following predictions:
Gold will trade between $500 and $600 for a while until uncertainties regarding
the financial markets begin to grow. Prices will then rise more sharply and
should reach near $750 by the end of 2006. Silver should advance by an even
greater percentage as ‘safe money’ finds the lower price range of silver to be
attractive and we look for silver to reach $15.00. Because of its tighter market
and more significant industrial demand, we also expect platinum to outperform
gold and reach the area of $1,400 per ounce.
Time will tell and once again we would remind readers that any investment
decisions should only be made after consultation with qualified investment
advisors.