Monday, February 27th, 2012

On many occasions, it is not sufficient to simply observe the action in one important indicator, as valuable information may be gleaned by comparing action in one item to another important commodity.  Such is the case with gold and silver.  Read Article

Friday, February 24th, 2012

Many people collect various items while traveling, perhaps including artefacts, clothing, local liquors and liqueurs, even local currencies and coins.  My personal favourite is to collect national, state or urban publications and then review them at leisure, focusing on financial information.  One such article gathered during my recent travels stood out as if it were printed in bright red ink of banner headline size!  Read Article

Wednesday, February 22nd, 2012

In all of the celebration over the latest Greek rescue program, an important question of political philosophy is being utterly ignored.  That question may be posed as follows:  "When did the Greek people agree that an international body should have the right to impose conditions on their sovereign nation?"  A second question might be whether a combination of international forces should be able to coerce Greece into keeping the Euro as their currency against their own wishes.   Read Article

Tuesday, February 21st, 2012

I have just returned from visiting one of the most important mining nations on Earth, Mexico.  During my visits, I spent some time in both Durango and Hermosillo and it was the latter city which was most impressive.  Anyone who still thinks of Mexico as a backwater nation would be forced to revise their opinion after visiting that modern, vibrant city of about 1,000,000 people.  Read Article

Monday, February 20th, 2012

Due to the holiday and market closures, we will resume the Melman Minutes tomorrow.

Friday, February 17th, 2012

Greetings from Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico which is perhaps one of the most modern and advanced Mexican cities we have visited on our various travels, but which still illustrates just how different life in Mexico remains when compared to Canada, the US, Australia or other “advanced” nations. Read Article

Thursday, February 16th, 2012

Due to Leonard's unexpected  travel delays, today's Minute will not be available.  Our Melman Minutes will resume tomorrow. 

Sorry for this,

Monday, February 13th, 2012

While much of the world's attention has been focused on Greece and that nation's many real and difficult struggles which range from social disorder to virtual collapse of its economic system, our attention this morning is elsewhere.  Over the weekend, we pieced together information on a problem which has the potential to be catastrophic - and, in our opinion, that statement is no exaggeration.  Read Article

Friday, February 10th, 2012

All of us like to belong to clubs of our choice, be they country clubs, golf clubs, Lions Clubs, Rotary, Optimists, Shriners and so forth, with apologies to any meritorious organizations I might have omitted.  However, from time to time, unwanted membership in 'clubs' takes place and this morning we learned that Greece had just joined one such organization.  Read Article

Thursday, February 9th, 2012

It seems to us that in one particular manner, the year 2012 has not started with a "bang", but rather with some sort of "slither".  After two or three years of dynamic, fast-paced international financial action, financial news during the early part of 2012 reminds us of the Oriental saying, "death by a thousand cuts".  Here is why.

Read Article

Wednesday, February 8th, 2012

Due to non-negotiable tight publication deadlines for other articles in progress, the “Melman Minute” normally prepared for this morning has been re-scheduled for tomorrow morning. We plan to publish a “Melman Minute” per our usual schedule on Friday as well.

Please accept our apologies for any inconvenience caused by this re-scheduling.

Yours truly,

Leonard Melman

Monday, February 6th, 2012

One of the most famous quotes from Shakespeare appears in the play "Hamlet" and goes, "To be or not to be, that is the question..."  Well, for today's times, I would like to paraphrase it to ask, "To have free markets or not to have free markets; that is the question..." Read Article

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

January's Jobs Report was issued by the U. S. Department of Labor right on schedule this morning and one can only imagine the pleasure those numbers brought to the Obama Administration as the election of November 2012 draws nearer.  Read Article

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012

It has been said that there are "liars, damned liars and then statistics", meaning we should not put our trust in statistics alone, but should view such information with more than a slightly jaundiced eye.  However, in our experience, we occasionally run across statistical data with such stark implications that we do indeed sit up and take notice.   Read Article

Monday, January 30th, 2012

Several days ago, I used part of this space to comment on the unnatural appearance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the latter part of December and throughout January, pointing out that the amazingly limited variance from a straight line suggested market action which was both "artificial" and "manipulated."    Read Article

Friday, January 27th, 2012

When it comes to facility with the English language, one of my favourites (by far!) was the great 19th Century lyricist Sir William S. Gilbert, the famous wordsmith whose words were set to glorious music by the equally talented Sir Arthur Sullivan.  As I watch the often contradictory flow of financial and political news of late, I am reminded of one of Gilbert's famous lines from the operetta "H.M.S. Pinafore", "...Things are seldom what they seem; skim milk masquerades as cream."  Read Article

Wednesday, January 25th, 2012

I realize what follows in this morning's "Melman Minute" may forever bar me from potential membership in the "Barak Obama Fan Club", but I will willingly take that risk. However, following last night's State of the Union Address" (which was anything but a speech consistent with historic State of the Union Addresses), I feel compelled to comment on the implications of his speech to our world of precious and base metals mining.  Read Article

Monday, January 23rd, 2012

Greetings from the Cambridge House Vancouver Resource Conference where approximately 12,000 enthusiastic attendees have thronged the Vancouver Convention Center with, in our opinion, two primary questions in mind.  First, where is the financial world heading and, second, why are so many mining shares ailing despite generally robust action in the prices of the metals?  Read Article

Friday, January 20th, 2012

Momentum is a strange thing.  Many of us who follow our favourite football, hockey or basketball teams can cite many examples where a period of lacklustre performance is followed by gathering strength until the entire tenor of the game changes.  Read Article

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

One of the advantages of having been around long enough to be considered a "gray-beard" is that through actual experience, one is able to identify certain repeating characteristics and I believe this is particularly true of precious metals bull markets.  Read Article

Monday, January 16th, 2012

A list of attributes which might be of benefit to a financial analyst might include the ability to digest reams of data, a background of accumulating economic knowledge, some familiarity with technical analysis and so forth.  However, such a list would not normally include possessing a sense of humour, but that is exactly what was called for as I perused some of the headlines accumulated over the past weekend. Read Article

Friday, January 13th, 2012

Oh, it must be Friday the 13th! 

I am unfortunately stranded in Quebec due to weather and not able to produce a minute for today.  Our minutes will resume on Monday the 16th.

Leonard

Monday, November 14th, 2011

In our opinion here at TMR, an epidemic is sweeping across the Western World and it is one we believe is inflicting a terrible disservice.  I am referring to the recently-developed talent among the financial media as well as politicians and financial leadership to make glorious-sounding statements which say virtually nothing of value.  Read Article

Wednesday, November 9th, 2011

Every so often, the markets present us with a puzzling situation where the fundamental facts would suggest one direction, but the performance of the item in question suggests something else. The world of the petroleum complex offers us a timely example of just such a conundrum. Read Article

Monday, November 7th, 2011

One of the great benefits of trading charts is that they are able to convey information on months of activity within a single glance, as opposed to attempting to absorb days, weeks, months or even years of digital data. 

The gold chart reflecting the past few months provides us with an excellent example . . Read Article

Friday, November 4th, 2011

One of the central themes at “The Melman Report” is that the world is already drowning in fiat currency and the outlook, as we see things, is that the path is wide open for the unlimited creation of more of the same.  That theme was reinforced by a news release this morning,   Read Article

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

One can only wonder just how many outright failures, how many revisions to set plans, how many reversals, dodging and evasions regarding already-announced plans it will take before the world stops losing faith in the 'solutions’ concocted by various political establishments.  Read Article

Monday, October 31st , 2011

Every so often, it would appear worthwhile to re-state our overall thinking on economic matters as they relate to both the precious and base metals.  The present time period seems to qualify as especially important. 

Read Article

Friday, October 28th , 2011

Well, if the world’s financial markets are to be believed, Europe’s financial problems have been resolved, America is headed back toward renewed prosperity and, as Churchill might have put things, we can all move forward to “broad sunlit uplands.”  What else can one conclude after looking at the major financial market charts reflecting activity during the past few weeks?  Read Article

Wednesday, October 26th , 2011

The swings in fortunes for both the base and precious metals over the past few weeks have been nothing short of astonishing.  Since early September, gold has endured a top-to-bottom loss of almost $400 and then turned around to quickly recover almost half that figure.  The gold chart shows the decline from nearly $1,930 to a low of around $1,540, followed by the recent surge which has carried gold to an intra-day high of about $1,720 earlier this morning. Read Article

Monday, October 24th , 2011

First, optimism is once again rampant among the world's political and financial media.  Where just one month ago, reams of stories were circulating which described a world ready to plunge into recession or chaos, quite suddenly the direction of news has turned around - and carried most financial markets around the globe to relative highs, with the Dow Industrials leaping by about 1,000 points during the most recent rally period.

Read Article

Wednesday, October 19th , 2011

Signs are beginning to appear that the inflation dragon might be in the process of re-awakening, despite the fact that many observers might have concluded it had been slain, perhaps forever.   Read Article

Monday, October 17th , 2011

Two figures stood out during our weekly review of reams of economic data and, quite frankly, both give us pause for serious concern regarding the general economic future.  The first, “Foreign Holdings of U.S. Government Debt”, is continuing on its recent downward path.  The second, the level of “US National Debt” is approaching a staggering – and ominous – ‘round’ number.  Read Article

Friday, October 14th , 2011

What started as a minor curiosity and then grew next in a rapidly-expanding intrusion into our daily consciousness has now burgeoned into a full-blown phenomenon. Of course, we are referring to the “Occupy Wall Street” movement. Some of the figures relating to its international growth are remarkable,  Read Article

Wednesday, October 12th , 2011

Strong buying in gold and silver during the overnight hours has resulted in sharply higher openings in North America this morning.  Gold has surged by almost $30 and is once again approaching the $1,700 level while silver has added about 80 cents and is again near $33.00.  However,  Read Article

Monday, October 10th , 2011

Despite the fact that all Canadian markets are closed for the Canadian Thanksgiving Day and America’s bond markets are also taking the Columbus Day off, many markets remain open and some of them have been particularly active so far this morning.  Financial markets have opened strongly higher as have precious metals markets as well with gold reaching into the $1,670’s before some light selling set in.  Read Article

Friday, October 7th , 2011

HERE WE GO AGAIN!  As the chart below depicts so clearly, the world’s financial markets, as exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, have embarked on a series of rallies followed by declines followed by rallies followed by declines ad infinitum that has been ongoing now for almost three months.  During that time, there have been no less than TEN alternating short-term moves in the DJIA of 500 points or more.  The most recent in the series is a recent rally which has recovered more than 500 points since the dismal days of last week.  Read Article

Wednesday, October 5th , 2011

As we have noted previously, there are two particular types of information we consider in arriving at our suggested price movement estimates.  One is ‘fundamental’, or an analysis of general information such as supply and demand, industry trends, political influences, relevant economic data and so forth.  The other form of information is known generally at ‘chart analysis’ or ‘technical analysis’, referring to analyzing actual market action as depicted on price charts.   Read Article

Monday, October 3rd , 2011

There is a clear split among the metals we watch most closely at “The Melman Report.”  Those metals which relate to industrial production once again moved to the downside early this morning while the monetary metals, namely gold and silver, are showing good gains on the openings.   Read Article

Friday, September 30th , 2011

There is a word which has been raising its ugly head on an increasing basis, and we at The Melman Report can take credit for warning you several months ago that due to increasing desperation, this word would come into significant play.  Read Article

Monday, September 26th , 2011

It always amazes us just how quickly market sentiment can change, both negatively and positively and, in the case of last week’s volatile markets, it took only one word from the Fed to send markets reeling around the world.  That word was “significant” as in ‘significant problems for the American economy’.   Read Article

Friday, September 23rd , 2011

DEAR READERS:
 
While it is true that, as Billy Chrystal yelled out in "City Slickers", " I'M ON VACATION ! ", it is also true that enormously important actions are taking place on a variety of fronts. Many of these may have huge implications for the world at large as well as our world of precious and base metals mining.

Therefore, I plan to take the time over the weekend to prepare a special "Melman Minute" which will be posted Monday morning, along with commentary on market action as the new week opens.

Have a great weekend!

Leonard Melman

Friday, September 16th , 2011

Details of the latest ‘rescue’ program (just how many have there been?) are now emerging and, given the nature of this latest European plan, it is easy to conclude that the level of desperation among the world’s financial leaders is rising rapidly, for it is apparent that, to use an over-worked expression, they are ‘pulling out all the stops’.   Read Article

Thursday, September 15th , 2011

Once again, markets have turned a blind eye to the same troubles that consumer their interest and reversed their previous actions.     Read Article

Friday, September 9th , 2011

Long time readers will have no difficulty recalling that your editor has long-standing disagreements with President Obama and, frankly, we even question whether he has the ability, knowledge and experience to handle the job of President of the United States.    Read Article

Wednesday, September 7th , 2011

Several issues past, we noted a trend which was becoming apparent and recent events appear to be confirming its continuing existence.   Read Article

Tuesday, September 6th , 2011

Thanks to the long weekend just past, we were able to update some of our economic research at “The Melman Report” and one particular study is radiating bright “red warning flags”.  We are referring to the Federal Reserve Board’s publication of “Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt.”  Read Article

Friday, September 2nd , 2011

It appears that after several months of seeming disjointed action where many market moves did not follow a normally predictable path, we have finally entered a period when market reactions are beginning to make at least a modicum of sense.  Read Article

Wednesday, August 31st , 2011

It is truly amazing how often we see the same errors being repeated over and over again.  This morning’s news wires present us with two examples to illustrate the principle. Read Article

Monday, August 29th , 2011

If there was one phrase which describes the general reaction relating to financial markets around the world this morning it is a “sense of relief” that things have not turned out to be as bad as had been previously believed.
Read Article

Friday, August 26th , 2011

Well, the world had been holding its breath waiting for word from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, wondering what majestic programs the Fed Chairman might tell us about in his long-awaited address from the monetary leaders’ gathering at Jackson Hole, WY.  Read Article

Wednesday, August 24th , 2011

When we wrote the following comment this past Monday, we didn’t expect quite the immediate and drastic market action which ensued.    Read Article

Monday, August 22nd , 2011

Gold - and now silver as well - continue to confound doubters by moving relentlessly higher. The yellow metal is now knocking on the doorstep of $1,900 per ounce while silver is moving strongly ahead as well, now approaching $44.00 per ounce.    Read Article

Friday, August 19th , 2011

Just a few months ago, virtually no one would have predicted the power of gold’s monumental move of the past several weeks.  It has caught virtually everyone by surprise, including ourselves.  Many “gold bulls” fully expected further gains for the yellow metal in the last half of the year, but it is the speed with which those gains have been attained that is the startling feature.    Read Article

Thursday, August 18th , 2011

Anyone who knows me personally is aware that I have a definite aversion to using profanity, but this morning I find only one description of various ongoing information releases to be of worth: “Boy, is the $&%^ hitting the fan today!”   Read Article

Monday, August 15th , 2011

One of the subjects dealt with in a recent Melman Minute was the concept of trading volume relating to the direction of a major market move. Unfortunately, at that time we had only a few minutes to deal with this difficult subject but market action is presently muted so far today, so we have a bit more time to explore the subject more thoroughly.  Read Article

Friday, August 12th , 2011

Markets appear to have calmed down somewhat, at least for the moment, which makes this lull an excellent time to take a step back and evaluate recent market moves and attempt to suggest whether the sudden recent moves to the upside in financial markets and declines in gold reflect genuine reversals - or whether, in fact, they are simply corrective actions within ongoing trends.  Read Article

Wednesday, August 10th , 2011

One of the most interesting divergences we have noticed of late is the enormous difference in the performance of gold compared to the other ‘semi-monetary’ metals such as silver, platinum and palladium. While gold has been moving powerfully from one record high to another – it rallied to just above $1,780 this morning – the other three have been mired in patterns of mediocre performance as their price charts trace out sideways patterns.  Read Article

Monday, August 8th , 2011

The central point of our 2011 Forecast for gold, silver and platinum was a specific prediction that the general public would begin to lose faith in the ability of the political and financial systems to restore stability and prosperity to this globe’s financial affairs. Our supposition was that, at present, very few people harboured such doubts, but as the year progressed, the number of skeptics would rise and, as that number increased, additional funds would pour into the precious metals and they would rise, with our forecast for gold calling for $1,850 by year-end 2011.  Read Article

When we went to sleep last night, it was impossible to avoid wondering what the markets might deliver this morning. After all, Thursday’s trading results included the TSX Index down by over 430 points, the Dow Industrials off by more than 500, the S&P 500 Index down by more than 60, NASDAQ down by a whopping 136. In addition, all major European exchanges suffered through heavy selling and we must also note that all mining share indexes got clobbered as well, specifically including the mining-sensitive “Toronto-Venture” exchange which suffered through one of its biggest percentage losses in history.  Read Article

The gold market has clearly given its verdict on the recent United States Congress’ concept of a ‘solution’ to the American debt crisis. We believe gold is saying, as succinctly as possible, “...This was the wrong action to take. You had a chance to make a real impact on indebtedness for generations to come but you opted instead for the easy path of business as close to usual as possible. For shame!”  Read Article

It is amazing just how wrong the ‘conventional media’ can get things. Once President Obama made his Friday speech announcing that a resolution to the debt default crisis was at hand – something he would not have done unless it was a ‘done deal’ – pundits from radio to TV to print media all began forecasting a reversal to the downside for gold, since, as they so unctuously explained, it was only the apparent onrushing debt limitation crisis which had propelled gold to its recent record highs. Boy, were they in for a surprise.  Read Article

Friday, July 29th, 2011

Of all the attributes of gold, one of the least understood or mentioned is that it often functions as a “reverse thermometer” of societal stability. In other words, as the functions of society appear to be performing in a stable, satisfactory manner, gold usually performs poorly, but if gold is soaring, then the implication is society is heading toward “hell in a hand-basket.”  Read Article

Wednesday, July 27th, 2011

Quite recently, we wrote about the seeming non-conformity of gold and the US Dollar rising in tandem, rather than moving in the opposite direction as had been the normal case for most of the past several decades. As readers might recall, we offered the explanation that both gold and the Greenback were benefitting from the monetary turmoil in Europe and each may well have been the beneficiary of funds seeking a safe haven. We also added the caveat that:  Read Article

Monday, July 25th, 2011

It has been our pleasure to have been commenting, in one way or another, on political and economic events and how they have affected our world of precious and base metals mining for almost four decades. During all those years, we can never recall a period when so many events of potentially cataclysmic – and we use that term advisedly – events have been taking place virtually simultaneously.  Read Article

Friday, July 22nd, 2011

Every so often, a political or international financial leader says something that perhaps provides a little more information to the public than might have been intended. I believe such was the case with a self-congratulatory statement from the IMF which was printed in “The Times of London” newspaper this morning.  Read Article

Wednesday, July 20th, 2011

Going back to the general principals which guide us, one of the most important is the concept that governments have created the enormous debt problems now staggering one country after another because for decade after decade, they spent more than they have taken in via legitimate taxation revenues.  Read Article